The World in 2010: The Top Ten Economic and Financial Issues

By Adrian Ineichen

The Top Ten

A new year provides the opportunity to look back, learn, and look forward what may (need to) change. Instead of adopting New Year resolutions, I look forward to upcoming hot top ten issues and what we may expect from 2010 relating to economics and finance: 

1.       The World Economy is Recovering, But Some Countries More Slowly Than Others

Asia has rebounded and even Western countries will recover, but slowly, but many structural problems remain: Financial markets remain weak and current labor laws in some Western countries are too rigid such that high unemployment levels are likely to persist for some years. Policymakers will have to strike a balance between supporting the economy and winding down stimulus measures. Further, plans to fix public finance (growing deficits and debts) will be developed but may fall short of expectations and so many countries will continue to live beyond their intergenerationally equitable and sustainable means.

Also the growth champions will face challenges: Qatar will see again double-digit GDP growth and continue to boost both its oil and gas sector and the shift towards education- and technology-intensive sectors, thus outperforming its Arabic competitors such as the UAE whose Masdar Institute in the fledgling Masdar City will host the World Future Energy Summit in January. But the region must first regain confidence after the Dubai World debt appeared unsafe. China will probably start to tighten its monetary policy and reduce lending to prevent asset price bubbles, NPL growth and CPI inflation, but sees its growth rate increase to 9-10%.

Some things will not change: commodity prices will be volatile and see a lift when economies recover. Meanwhile, China became the world’s largest automobile market already in 2009 with approximately 13.8m units (passenger cars and light trucks) while US sales have been just around 10m for 2009. Both figures will rise in 2010.

2.       Emerging Markets’ Growth Fuels Confidence to Claim Bigger Say in Global Policy Making

Following the IMF/World Bank meetings in Istanbul in October 2009, it appears settled that Emerging Market Economies (EME) will see their voting power at both International Financial Institutions (IFI) increasing by 3-7%, for which new formulas will be fixed in 2010. Likewise, given their dynamism, EME will claim also more influence in various UN bodies and other global or regional policy making bodies, such as the G-20 and APEC. It will be interesting to see whether this translates into taking over more responsibilities, e.g. in the upcoming IDA 16 replenishment negotiation round which probably starts in 2010.

The EME world is diverse and evolves. While China, and even more so Russia will need to rebalance their economies. Watch for developments in India, South Africa, Brazil, which will have parliamentary elections in 2010, and especially Indonesia.

3.       Regional Free Trade Is Booming – the US is the Looser

While the US becomes increasingly protectionist (the most recent example: Chinese steel pipes) and thus loses even more trade market share, Europe appears willing to reform its Common Agricultural Policy to reduce subsidies which could help moving closer finish the stalled WTO Doha round successfully. This, however, is unlikely to happen in 2010. The action is, again, in Asia: By January 1, China and the ten ASEAN countries established a free trade zone combining 1.9bn people and eliminating tariffs on 90% of their traded goods. This is likely to reinforce the redirection of trade flows involving China from which more goods will flow to the rest of the world.

Meanwhile, bilateral and regional free trade agreements will continue to proliferate as second-best surrogate to a global (WTO) agreement. This multiplicity of agreements is costly, and reinforces impediments to the conclusion of the Doha (and the start of future) round(s). Since the US appears reluctant to proceed with bilateral trade deals (and may not even put the one with South Korea into force in 2010 … after almost three years), it will be among the losers: Americans will pay relatively higher prices and have relatively worse access to other markets to sell goods and services.

4.       The Future of Banking and Finance

Good crises could lead to healthy lessons learned. 2010 will see at least some policy moves in the right direction, but midterm elections in the US and calamities elsewhere will prevent the restructuring of financial markets from being completed in 2010. While the UK will probably suffer from its extraordinary tax on boni of executives, room for reasonable realignment of incentives will open up: claw-backs on executive pay, more independence and teeth for regulators. To reduce forbearance and capture, regulators may get better remuneration and clearer targets which they have to meet (and sanctions in case of failures). Some global policy coordination will take place and could help for reshaping markets effectively.

As capital adequacy ratios have been proven to be an insufficient indicator on their own, new ideas are needed. Will there be a Basel III standard? Or some tradable capital insurance contracts? With regards to the US, one will see how the new credit card law (going into force in February) will affect the consumer credit market, which is torn by increasing default rates and punitively high interest rates. A unified financial regulator is unlikely to emerge (and may not even work better, as the UK’s FSA showed). Finally, new measures to boost SME lending will emerge.

5.       China’s Rebalancing, Age and the Renminbi (RMB)

China’s rebalancing to more domestic consumption will be supported by policy moves and the trade deficit is likely to shrink by half down to 5% of the GDP, but the real economy will shift only slowly. China will overtake Japan in 2010 as the second largest economy in the world by GDP in US$, just behind the USA (which it may overtake in the next 20 years or so), and its exports will reach 10% of world trade.

Challenges exist many: China is in 2010 at the peak of its “generational dividend”: The dependency ratio will bottom out in 2010 at 0.4 and start to increase due to the (recently somewhat more lenient) one-child policy. Is China getting too old to get rich fast enough? China’s population will nevertheless grow to an expected 1.46 billion in 2030, and then decrease slowly. Further, with the China-ASEAN free trade, jobs e.g. in the textile industry will increasingly get off-shored to Cambodia, Vietnam or Indonesia.

One can expect the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) and capital liberalization to continue gradually. The central bank may shift foreign assets to China’s SWF and into higher yielding currencies and may even relink the RMB to a currency basket (in which the US dollar probably will have less weight).

6.       USA: The Fed, the Deficit and Other Hot Issues

Despite some skirmishes, Bernanke will probably be confirmed as Fed chairman, and will face the challenge to support the US economy while reducing the extraordinary policy measures to prevent inflation. Even if Congress will follow Ron Paul’s idea to curtail or audit the Fed, it will make sure to keep the real effects small.

Since only about 30% of the stimulus money was spent in 2009, it will continue to have some effects in 2010. But the big question will be how to reduce the federal deficit (and debt). The budget proposal in early February will provide some hints and open the battle. Likewise, the administration will need to address how to wind down TARP and other policy measures, how to meet educational and infrastructure needs and the public finances of the states.

As the healthcare bill will soon be settled, numerous other issues such as defense spending (and obligations, given the growing war efforts in Afghanistan) and social security would deserve to be tackled, but midterm elections will probably prevent effective solutions.

7.       Energy and Climate Change: A Real Treaty after Copenhagen?

Why does the US emit 19 tons of carbon dioxide per person and year while other rich countries such as Switzerland (5.8t) and Germany (9.8t) can do better? After the shaky confirmation of emissions cut by some countries in Copenhagen last December, 2010 could see (with luck) the conclusion of a more elaborate treaty succeeding the Kyoto protocol. We may even see the launch of Chevy’s Volt electric car – meanwhile, Beijing’s emission standards are likely to remain tougher than America’s.

While the hunt for global commodities continues, pipeline construction will result in some spats in Eastern Europe and Asia. The US Congress may pass a cap-and-trade bill, however diluted and pork-filled it may be in the end. It remains open whether carbon capture and storage can make a real difference already in 2010 whether new nuclear power plants and sizeable new renewable energy sources will come anytime soon to America. Equally of interest will be whether behavior and mentality of some societies will significantly alter to reduce waste and increase environmental awareness, probably the key ingredient for change.

8.       Emerging Innovations

More investments will be made in green and bio technologies. Although America is the first innovator, Asia will draw closer. Up to 80% of South Korea’s stimulus funds go into green technology.

Boeing’s first 787 Dreamliner, an aircraft that features better less fuel consumption due to the vast use of composite material, better engines and wings, will finally be delivered (to the Japanese ANA). Hints for the future of the automotive future could be seen at the shows in Detroit (January) and Geneva (March).

2010 will see the rapid expansion of ebook readers with more devices, more competition and lower prices. Likewise, going online with mobile phones will spread further, as WiMax and other technologies will be developed. URLs will no longer be restricted to Roman letters, as ICANN opens bidding procedures for new domain names that may contain Cyrillic, Chinese, Arabic or Korean characters.

9.       Big Events and Big Business

The World Economic Forum in Davos (Switzerland) in late January under the slogan “Improve the State of the World: Rethink, Redesign, Rebuild” will provide a great opportunity for discussing the future of markets and economic policy making. Watch for trends and gossip.

The third biggest sports event, the Winter Olympic Games, will take place in Vancouver starting February 12, whereas the second largest, the FIFA soccer world cup, is hosted by South Africa and begins in June. (Since the US faces a relatively easy group with Algeria, Slovenia and England, we could hope for another exploit like in 2002.) The last FIFA world cup 2006 in Germany resulted in US$ 2.6bn marketing and sponsorship revenues which are likely to be surpassed in 2010.

And, of course, there is the world expo in Shanghai from May to October, where the mascot “Haibao” (symbolized by the character “ren” 人, meaning person) expects to greet 70m visitors and 200 participating countries.

10.    You: Imaginative, Competitive and Entrepreneurial

Since this column has already exceeded its regular size, it is up to you to think and act. America needs more entrepreneurs who do not fear global markets, but discover new opportunities, explore and adopt new technologies and help less advanced economies. You are the key.

Selected References for Further Reading

The Economist (2009, November 13): The World in 2010.
http://www.economist.com/theworldin/

Masdar City
http://www.masdarcity.ae
Masdar Institute
http://www.masdar.ac.ae

Automobile Industry Information
All China Data Center (ACMR), and www.motorintelligence.com

Vancouver Games
http://www.vancouver2010.com

ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-12/31/content_12736507.htm

Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum 2010 in Davos http://www.weforum.org/en/events/AnnualMeeting2010/index.htm

World Expo 2010 in Shanghai
http://en.expo2010.cn

Advertisements

Big Spender Meets Big Saver

By Adrian Ineichen

The Great Contrast
Recently, President Obama travelled to Asia and visited Japan, the APEC summit in Singapore and went to China and Korea. The contrasts were stark, particularly in China: here comes the representative of the world’s most powerful democracy whose people save on average 3% of their disposable income (at some point in recent years, this figure has been negative) to the world’s largest nation whose people save about 20-25% of disposable income which lifts the gross domestic savings rate above the 50% mark. The big saver has (too?) much invested into the debt of the big spender and fears now that the latter’s bad economic conditions (unemployment above 10%, perennial current account and government deficits, etc.) may render the saver’s US assets that are estimated to top US$ 1.5 trillion less valuable (e.g. through potential inflation in the future or a depreciating dollar).

It is remarkable when the joint China-US statement issued on November 17 during Obama’s China stay says this: “United States will take measures to increase national saving as a share of GDP and promote sustainable non-inflationary growth. To achieve this, the United States is committed to returning the federal budget deficit to a sustainable path and pursuing measures to encourage private saving.”

How often have you seen a country pledging to be financially more responsible in a bilateral communiqué? It is not remarkable  that foreign powers prod the US to act, which may seem embarrassing enough, but it is remarkable because they are right and we should act, but have failed to do so for decades. Germany’s finance minister Schäuble warned last Friday against a looming fresh asset price bubble due to low US interest rates – which are expected to stay low for some time to keep liquidity and credit available – and provides the latest addition to the global concerns about US finances.

It Takes Two to Tango
The big spender (aka big debtor) knows that he has to adjust (boosting domestic savings and exports), but faces an uphill battle, given the urgent task to resolve the current crisis and get financial (and other) regulations right, on the domestic front.

Boosting saving is not easy in a consumption culture, and various policy tools have already proven to be ineffective. C. Fred Bergsten proposes three options worth considering. First, the US could switch from taxing income to taxing consumption which would put pressure on consumption. This idea may also be fruitful on its own as textbook economics tells us that consumption-based taxation has less distortionary effects than income-based taxes. Further, this would allow to clean up the US tax code (if Congress really seizes this once-in-a-lifetime chance) and could kill the current inefficient and administratively onerous retail sales taxes by a value-added taxation system.

Second, the introduction of mandatory savings schemes, let’s say of one or two percent on an individual’s income which could be retained in a separate account and used after retirement as a complement to the social security benefits. Third, medical and social security costs are contained e.g. by a comprehensive health care reform (recall, one of the original ideas of the current health care reform was to contain costs) and by a social security reform that may include the increase of the retirement age (a path that Germany has chosen and many Western European countries are likely to adopt in the future as well, given the demographics) and the reform of contribution and benefit formulas.

At the same time, an effective correction of imbalances requires the big debtor to coordinate with its biggest banker/creditor (i.e. the big saver) who himself has some daunting tasks ahead.

To get back on a sustainable growth path, the mainstream opinion suggests that China should boost domestic consumption and reduce its savings rate. At least three policy options could help. First, an increased redistribution could give high corporate profits away to poor Chinese people who may then spend more. At the same time China should reduce excess capacity and over-investment in certain industries (such as cement, steel, coal etc.). This is the Jonathan Anderson story which emphasizes that most of the savings are made by corporations and thus a resolution of the imbalance would require to start with changing the current industrial policy. It is noteworthy that Chinese investments this year have risen (pushed by stimulus). Second, improving the social safety nets, revamping education facilities and access and expanding public health care can increase spending directly, and may reduce the need for people to save as they can expect to have safer income sources when they are old and to be able to cope with health issues.

Third, the big saver allows for external adjustments to take place. In general, a revalued exchange rate would make Chinese exports less competitive and would thus squeeze corporate profits. While some call for a direct renminbi appreciation, others say that this move may not do much to rebalance the global economy (and may not have a large impact on the US current account deficit). It is likely that both sides miss the point. The key is that the current unofficial peg of the renminbi to the dollar (since summer 2008, after an appreciation path since July 2005) is not sustainable. It leads to foreign exchange surplus whose reinvestment has led to high risks and low returns, is a potential source for domestic Chinese inflation (which may arise in the coming years), and it attracts hot money which increasingly finds its way around China’s capital controls.

As China’s role in the global economy rises, the role of its currency is likely to grow too. To avoid adjustment shockwaves, a pragmatic approach could entail the speeding up of the gradual internationalization of the Renminbi, e.g. by expanding trade settlement or the institutional investor programs (QDII and QFII) while easing regulatory burden on cross-border capital flows. It will be interesting to see how the Chinese nomenklatura adjusts its policies when exports start to grow again and global outlooks further improve in 2010.

Nice to read:
Anderson, J. (2009. “The Myth of Chinese Savings”, Far Eastern Economic Review 172(9; Nov 2009), pp. 24-30.

Bergsten, C. F. (2009). “The Dollar and the Deficit”, Foreign Affairs 88(6; Nov/Dec 2009).

U.S.-China Joint Statement, November 2009
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/us-china-joint-statement

Germany warns US on market bubbles
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4ec41a1a-d616-11de-b80f-00144feabdc0.html

Chinese Banks and the Minsheng Case

By Adrian Ineichen

Economic Growth
While many major countries have suffered economic contraction or stagnation in 2009, China is expected to grow by about 8.2% in 2009. On the one hand, a massive stimulus package of approximately 4 trillion renminbi (RMB; about US$ 585bn) seems to have supported growth. Fiscal expansion has boosted infrastructure spending on airports, railways, bridges, environmental infrastructure and low-cost housing. This spending will contribute to a record budget deficit of 3.8% in 2009 (comparably, the US federal budget deficit for 2009 up to date is at about US$ 1.4tr, which is more than 66% of projected revenues, according to CBO estimates as of November).

On the other hand, Chinese bank lending has contributed to support economic activity. For the period January to October, total bank lending has accumulated to RMB 8.92tr in 2009 while the same period in 2008 saw lending at RMB 3.66tr – an increase by the factor 2.43. Overall lending for the whole year 2009 may well hit the 9.5tr level which would approximately equal the US federal deficit in dollar terms.

Chinese Banking
Such gigantic figures raise the questions about how sustainable and well-targeted such lending is. Recent steps point towards a tightening of the lending boom. The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has warned about the build-up of risks in the banking sector. Concerns have arisen that some of the new money is flowing into equity markets and real estate speculation.

So far, the ratio of non-performing loans (NPL) across the banking sector is low at 1.7%. The state-owned banks, particularly the top-five which have been used in the past by the government to direct credit, have relatively higher figures than some privately owned banks. Chinese banks may need to raise more capital in order to strengthen their balance sheets. Further, the People’s Bank of China is expected to tighten monetary policy and, among others, raise reserve requirements.

It will be interesting to watch how policies will balance between growth targets (and thus new lending and investments) and financial stability (and thus maintaining capital adequacy and prudent risk management). In any case, historical experience suggests that if NPLs are rising again, this may be hidden for some time and in the end the government may step in to clean up (as in the early 2000s). Such a wait-and-see approach is not only very costly, but also lengthy and it takes years to be effective (for example as late as August 2008, the Economist Intelligence Unit estimated the NPL ratio of one of the top-five state-owned Chinese banks to be at more than 23%). Damage to the banking sector could be long-lasting.

A Brighter Spot?
One of the brighter dots on the Chinese banking scene is the China Minsheng Banking Corporation (CMBC). Minsheng’s NPL with less than 1% is about half of the average. Last week, it raised US$ 3.86bn by listing on the HK stock exchange. With this step, CMBC’s tier 1 capital ratio increases to 8.65% (from 5.90%). While the Basel standard for tier 1 is 4%, many Western banks have strengthened their sometimes heavily damaged balance sheets since the current crisis broke out; the Swiss bank Credit Suisse has currently a tier 1 capital ratio of 16.4%, while Citi’s it at 12.7% and the British HSBC has 10.3%.

Even though the share offer appears to have been modestly priced and the retail part was 154 times oversubscribed, the shares took a hit on their first trading day in Hong Kong. This could hint at some market uncertainty about the soundness of Chinese banks, although CMBC looks comparably well-off. How will the market react when other Chinese banks raise their capital? Some others say Minsheng’s profitability is relatively weak which could explain the less-than-enthusiastic response to the listing.

Minsheng’s bid to take over a Californian bank, the United Commercial Bank (UCB) was deplorably thwarted in November 2009 by FDIC’s intervention to save the bankrupt UCB. The Federal Reserve could not grant approval to the Minsheng take-over of UCB as its home regulator, the CBRC, does not yet meet American standards for “consolidated supervision.” While such requirements may seem plausible (if they are too weak, a worst case scenario would be that many badly regulated and managed foreign banks could own American banks and engage in excessive risk-taking and undermine US financial stability), the Minsheng case is unfortunate as it involved one of the better Chinese banks willing to avoid the bankruptcy of a US bank. The FDIC intervention comes at an aggregated cost of US$ 1.4tr plus 300m lost TARP funds. Minsheng loses its 10% stake it had already in UCB.

Epilogue
It appears that the FDIC and the Fed should improve their coordination among themselves and with foreign regulators to avoid such cases which cause anger abroad and at home and lead to higher taxpayer’s costs. While prudential regulations are important, they should not spur domestic protectionism. Entry of foreign financial institutions in the US, but also in China and elsewhere can spur competition and market discipline and thus should be welcomed. I hope that regulators can work together to reduce barriers for foreign entry, streamline regulations and make them more transparent. A bi- (or: multi-?) lateral investment treaty would be a step in the right direction.

Suggested Links

About Minsheng Bank’s Hong Kong Listing:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704204304574544791937541848.html

The Economist about Minsheng:
http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14859281

UCB Failure and the Non-take-over:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/245e6872-d542-11de-81ee-00144feabdc0.html?catid=5&SID=google

Recent figure on the US budget deficit:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/10/07/budget-deficit-hit-record-trillion/

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/105xx/doc10521/budgetprojections.pdf

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/107xx/doc10708/11-9-09MBR.pdf

About Chinese lending:
http://www.thechinaperspective.com/articles/china039snovemberloansmaytotal150200bindustrialbank6654/index.html

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9267cf6a-b8ec-11de-98ee-00144feab49a.html

http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-43769120091107

EIU Country Report China December 2009